What's trending?
Social media trends are trending. But are they actually trends? And if not, can we still learn something from them?
Our Dr Jillian spent a year analysing social media trends, with the help of Nichefire and ViralMoment, to understand what’s a trend and what’s trending, and why it’s important to know the difference. Download the full report to find out what she learnt.
First thing’s first…what’s a trend?
The word trend gets thrown around a lot these days which, given how quickly the internet moves from one idea to the next, is not that surprising. To understand more about how they emerge and develop, Dr Jillian created the Moments Matrix - a way to analyse who is involved in a specific trend and how quickly it might evolve. With help from Nichefire and ViralMoment, she analysed the key social media trends that emerged throughout 2023. And what she discovered was pretty surprising. A lot of these trends weren’t actually trends.
For Dr Jillian, “there’s a difference between what’s trending and what’s a trend. I would say that ‘trending’ relates to a change over a short period of time…A trend, however, is an idea that goes on to create a more long-term behavioural or societal shift.”
So just because a meme, a video or a hashtag goes viral, doesn’t mean it should be called a trend. It could be, but there are some things you need to check first…
How to spot real trends
According to Pej Gruppen, there is a hierarchy of trends linked to length of time they stick around. The briefest type are fads. These are very short term but can influence rapid development across different categories. This is the category most social media trends fall under. Next you have micro trends which govern the market for a short period of time. These are closest to cultural trends.
And then there are mega trends which can last from three to seven years and characterise the spirit of the time, lifestyle, and consumption. Identifying these is also known as trend forecasting. This is a bit like the holy grail of trendspotting, because being able to predict what people will want in the future or how society might change can help put you one step ahead of your competitors.
Even though many people are aiming to find mega trends, each is useful in their own way. Identifying fads can help you quickly jump into conversations with your audiences in a relevant way and micro trends can help you develop more relevant products for your customers in the medium term. And some of these shorter term trends can be signals - or trend drivers - of mega trends. By understanding how they relate to each other and to bigger ideas, you can begin to predict longer term trends. That’s what Dr Jillian started to look into…
Key social media trends from 2023
So, now to the bit you’ve all been waiting for…what trends did she identify in 2023?
Many of the trends that were highlighted through the Moments Matrix were actually fads. Fruit Girl Summer and Home Depot tiny house sheds were never going to create major societal shifts, but they did give brands an opportunity to engage with their audiences through fun content and cool product development.
However, Dr Jillian noticed that a lot of these fads were actually drivers for bigger trends. Here are some of the ones she found:
We’re all feeling the cost of living crisis
Whilst never explicitly referenced, the popularity of content related to dupes and money-saving hacks highlights that everyone is conscious of the cost of living.
Nostalgia is a BIG thing
References to old songs in new TV shows and the revivals of childhood classics, such as Barbie, show we all look back fondly to the past. Unsurprising really, as nostalgia helps to evoke a sense of belonging to something bigger.
A balanced life is what we strive for
2023 saw workers across different sectors and geographies striking, many for the first time, for better pay and conditions. This happened to coincide with the rise of generative AI and conversations around how it could shape our lives for the better.
Generative AI is causing an existential crisis
Along with the idea that generative AI could empower us, is the idea that it could also destroy our current way of life as it threatens to take away our jobs. This has led to existential conversations around how humans and machines can co-exist.
What does this tell us about trends?
There are several things we can learn about the nature of trends from this analysis. Everything can be considered a trend, but not all are signals of long-term change. As a result, you need to think about what you’re trying to achieve before jumping into a trend: do you just want to find ways to engage your audience online? Or are you looking for signals to shape your long-term business strategy. This will help you decide which trends to focus your attention and resources on.
And trends can lead to other trends. In this case though, it’s important to identify their source. Trends evolve over time and can be used by different groups of people to mean different things. To make sure they’re relevant to your brand and audience, you need to understand where they came from originally and how they’re being used now. If not, you might find yourself in hot water!
How to become a modern-day trendspotter
If you want to identify trends - especially mega trends - it’s important to use a variety of sources. Those ideas that will shape society more broadly aren’t just going to be found on TikTok or Twitter. Instead, they’ll be permeating all media, including news stories, forums, blog posts and more. These are signals that they could be more than just fads or at the very least trend drivers.
And that leads to the most important factor when trendspotting and the reason why Dr Jillian wrote this report. Don’t just take trends at face value. Think critically about what effect they are having beyond the platform they’re shared on, how they connect to other trends and ideas, and how they might be shaping behaviour in real life. Because this is where the real value of trends lies.
Download the report for tips and analysis
For more tips on how to spot and analyse trends, and even more examples of social media fads and trends, download the full report.